Numeric Markets
Numeric Markets
Section titled “Numeric Markets”Numeric markets let you bet on the future value of something — like the price of Bitcoin on a specific date. Unlike YES/NO markets where outcomes are simple categories, numeric markets have a range of possible values.
How They Work
Section titled “How They Work”A numeric market defines a range [lo_bound, hi_bound]. When the oracle attests a value V within that range:
- HI token holders receive a proportional payout based on how close
Vis tohi_bound - LO token holders receive the complementary payout
For example, with range [0, 100000] and attested value V = 20000:
- HI holders get 20% of the share face
- LO holders get 80% of the share face
BTC-Only
Section titled “BTC-Only”Numeric markets on bitCaster use Bitcoin (sats) as the base asset. This is a deliberate design choice:
- Numeric markets need very fine price precision (up to 0.0001%)
- Achieving this precision with fiat currencies would require sub-cent ecash units, which add complexity and compatibility issues
- BTC’s
msat(millisatoshi) unit is natively supported by the Cashu protocol and provides enough granularity
What This Means for You
Section titled “What This Means for You”- Payout per share: 1,000 sats (~$0.60 at $60k BTC price)
- Price precision: 0.0001% per tick
- Minimum trade: affordable for most users
Creating a Numeric Market
Section titled “Creating a Numeric Market”When you create a numeric market:
- Choose the outcome range (e.g., BTC price $0–$100,000)
- Fund the market maker with sats
- Traders can buy HI or LO tokens based on their price prediction
Why Not Fiat Numeric Markets?
Section titled “Why Not Fiat Numeric Markets?”Fiat-denominated numeric markets would need either very large payouts per share or sub-cent ecash units. The product does not support fiat collateral. Sat-only collateral keeps the product boundary simple and explicit.